The Crowley Report 3/29/15

The Crowley Report 3/29/15Soy futures extended weekly losses at the end of the week and closed lower on Friday. News was light and volume subdued. Beans historically have a tendency to fall after the report, but it has been pretty volatile the past few years. The report reaction can produce just about anything. The longer term outlook calls for lower US and world soybean prices amid expanding global acreage and production. It’s unlikely that Chinese demand growth will be large enough to offset the increase in supply and lower prices are expected in the year ahead. Technical's show support for May at 9.55 with resistance up near 10 bucks. The commitment of traders report showed soybeans much more short than we thought now [more]

The Crowley Report 3/16/15

The Crowley Report 3/16/15With the Dollar making new highs yet again grains fell.  The Dollar Index traded to as high as 100.785 earlier today as traders look towards a Fed rate hike later this year ahead of their meeting next week.  Soybeans fell 16’4 to 974’0 in a one-sided session to end the week.  The market is fully expecting a switch to Brazil with the Dollar strength and ample South American supplies. The Brazilian Real has fallen 3% to 3.26 vs the US dollar. Such a fall in the currency equates to nearly a 30 cent rally in their cash bids for soybeans, and farmers are active sellers. Sales were said to be more than 1 MMTs and cash fob basis levels are down 6-8 [more]

The Crowley Report 3/9/15

The Crowley Report 3/9/15A strong jobs report pushed the dollar higher to end the week, keeping pressure on our markets. The South American weather forecast featured mostly mild/dry weather for Argentina and S Brazil for the next 2 weeks which would be perfect following the excessive rains of late. With the strike delays behind us, harvest should progress to over the halfway mark in Brazil. Farmers there were heavy sellers this week as the Dollar/Real relationship widened some more. There was chatter that China is going to sell at least 2 MMT of beans from their reserves and replace them with purchases from S America. Tuesday brings the March WASDE report from the USDA. US soybean ending stocks are expected to be pared back [more]

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