The Crowley Report 4/20/15

The Crowley Report 4/20/15Beans closed with small gains on Friday and finished up with relatively modest advances for the week. The Commitment of Traders report shows that the speculative funds piled on the new short positions last week as the market tumbled 34 1/2 cents basis the May futures. The spec trader increased his short position by 27,845 contracts to net short 76,269 lots. This week's better than expected old crop weekly export sales and a March NOPA crush at record levels, and well above even the highest trade estimate were the supportive items. With the Brazilian soybean harvest winding down, and the Argentine one making rapid progress, attention is now starting to switch to US planting potential. CBOT open interest has fallen [more]

The Crowley Report 4/5/15

The Crowley Report 4/5/15Fundamentally, on the surface the USDA report on Tuesday was very bearish as corn prices plummeted about 18 cents a bushel. However, the market did not make new lows and there was no real follow through on this move down as corn prices rallied over the next two days of trading getting about half of the losses back. Bottom line here is that corn prices are still in a wide trading range as we head into the planting season. This range on the May futures is about 30 cents/bushel wide between $3.70 cents and $4/bushel. Bottom line I am going to go out on a limb and predict good planting conditions this year. That coupled with the massive supplies already on hand could send corn [more]

The Crowley Report 3/29/15

The Crowley Report 3/29/15Soy futures extended weekly losses at the end of the week and closed lower on Friday. News was light and volume subdued. Beans historically have a tendency to fall after the report, but it has been pretty volatile the past few years. The report reaction can produce just about anything. The longer term outlook calls for lower US and world soybean prices amid expanding global acreage and production. It’s unlikely that Chinese demand growth will be large enough to offset the increase in supply and lower prices are expected in the year ahead. Technical's show support for May at 9.55 with resistance up near 10 bucks. The commitment of traders report showed soybeans much more short than we thought now [more]

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